Referring to real estate in China mainland, we have to talk about its development in this decade. Going through the bad influence of 2008, and later booming development, now China real estate has entered into a stable situation however it dose not mean there is the rate which the housing price still walk to low according to past real case about Vanke industry. So let us have a look about the prediction of real estate in China, also the future development of real estate in China.

On the one hand, the demographic dividend, urbanization and other factors that support high housing prices, are gradually weakening. On the other hand, the development mode of local governments to sell land and blindly borrow money is also not long lasting. And when the government uses executive hand, it can no longer push up housing prices, perhaps it is time to roll out about the real estate tax.

 

In the past twenty years, anyone who has predicted the fall in house prices has almost miscalculated. Mr. Ren Zhiqiang, as the “dead enemy” of the Real Estate market, fulfilled his predictions one by one, so that many people firmly believed in his “big rise and small fall” rule of housing prices. So it means the total tendency of housing prices will be raised in the future. In Mr. Ren Zhiqiang’s view, the trend of house prices in the future is still upward, mainly based on the fact that the urbanization process will not be broken, even if it reaches the urbanization rate of 70% to 80% in developed countries, the rule of “big rise and small fall” will not be broken.

 

So, this decline in house prices as continuing to spread and deepen then eventually become a watershed to change China’s house prices for many years strong soaring, or China’s real estate market is really special with only rising and not falling? I think nobody may give a proper answer for that. Only the market of development tell something.

 

But one thing is for sure, there are no commodities and markets that only keep rising and falling. Today, compared with 10 years ago, the supply and demand of the real estate market, especially the purchasing power of the people in China, has changed dramatically and this change is no longer supporting the continued rise of housing prices. Human history has long proved that in the face of enormous debt pressure, any asset can not avoid the consequence of devaluation.

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